I have been working on a theory for a while, trying to figure out why hockey-mad markets like Toronto and Vancouver have had such little success in the playoffs, and in particular, why neither team has won the ultimate prize for so long. In contrast, we’ve seen teams in non-traditional hockey markets (e.g. Anaheim, Carolina, and Tampa Bay) win the Stanley Cup in recent years. I’m not going to do any sort of deep analysis with evidence here, but instead, just toss out a theory. Roughly, the question I’ve been pondering is: why is that Canadian teams seem to be middling teams in general?
Let’s assume that on balance, teams are equally lucky: a bounce here, and a bounce there all even out in the long run.
Further, let’s assume that GMs are equally skilled in picking players (on average) during the draft. That is, let’s assume that for the first sixty or so picks (first two rounds), most GMs will have picked the same players in the same order.
The latter assumption, as most Canuck fans will tell you, is absurd: the Canucks have been simply awful in the draft for many years, even with their middling picks, and that has hurt them dearly in the long run.
It is, however, through the draft, that generally, great teams are made (perhaps a testable claim). And it is here that I think we can find the source of problems for Canadian teams—let’s call these the hockey mad markets (HMMs) more generally.
My contention is that in HMMs, the belief is that the team is “almost there” almost every year—that is, they only need an extra piece or two to “make it to the top” during the playoffs. The GM feels pressured to make a trade near the trade deadline: often, these will involve trading away prospects or draft picks in order to acquire older veterans (generally not on long term deals). In almost every case (remember than only one team can win the Cup), these don’t work out; as a consequence, it leaves the team poorer in subsequent years: the older veteran player that was acquired generally walks, and the HMM team has now lost one or more prospects/draft picks for the coming years.
I suspect that the GM feels pressured on a lot of different fronts: from the fans, and from ownership. Ownership is probably (to some extent) swayed by public opinion—even more so, probably, when ownership /lives/ in said market. This is probably more so the case in HMMs than in other markets. Thus, enough “calling for the GM’s head” will actually result in ownership firing the GM. The public in HMMs get it both ways: if the GM of middling HMM team doesn’t make the trade, then the GM didn’t try hard enough; if the GM of a middling HMM makes the trade, but does poorly in the playoffs, then the GM picked up the wrong veterans. In either case, making the trade for the playoffs (i.e. near the trade deadline) is almost always a losing proposition—it only works out for one team in the short term (only one wins the cup), and in the long term, only helps the teams that traded for prospects and draft picks. But, in a HMM market, you understand why the GM’s hands are tied: you better do something if you’re close, and if you’re not close, you better do something so that you are close—for that year.
HMM teams are often left in subsequent years with a middling regular-season result, meaning that they get average-level picks in the draft—many of which would have been traded away in previous years. This means that HMM teams get weaker and weaker over time. I think this is what has happened with the Calgary Flames and Toronto Maple Leafs—draft picks for many years have been traded away, and you’re left with a bunch of older guys who just can’t get the job done.
In contrast, a regular team in a non-HMM can go about its business, and allow the regular rules of the NHL draft to play itself out (all the while benefiting from trading its older veterans for even more draft picks or prospects). This means that such teams can go through a regular up-down cycle: if the team does poorly one season, it gets a high draft pick the next year as “compensation”; conversely, if it does well one season, it doesn’t need as good a draft pick in the next season. Non-HMM teams can do this because the public eye isn’t as focused on the team and its performance on a day-to-day basis, and so there is likely not the same kind of pressure on the GM to make ridiculous trades that hamper the team in the short-term.
This has interesting consequences in the way that we think about how markets work. In most businesses, if the business is making stupid decisions (e.g. imagine walking into Denny’s, and all the prices are +$10), you simply ignore them. Generally, this will make the company reverse its decision and/or it will go out of business entirely. Yet in an HMM, fans will continue to pay for the product, even if the product sucks (case in point: Toronto Maple Leafs).
I think it is for these reasons that teams like Tampa Bay, Carolina, Anaheim, Chicago, and Pittsburgh have won the cup in recent years: they were essentially allowed to stink it up for a few years, and therefore had some outstanding drafts. Los Angeles, Philadelphia and Washington are also great examples where a team has been allowed to reload its roster because of a few years of really stinking it up.
In contrast, the Canadian teams like Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal—all of these teams are expected to do well every year, and so the pressure makes the GM make decisions for hopeful short-term gain (i.e. a gamble), which ends up tying their hands in the long term.
The salary cap also brings in interesting implications to the table. In the past, I think these bad decisions in HMMs could have been overcome by spending more money: you buy your way out of trouble by simply spending more. With the salary cap, it really keeps the GM’s hands tied: he can’t buy his way out of difficulty any more; instead, he needs to ride it out. I suspect this was what was/is going on in Calgary.
One way to “buy” yourself out of this difficulty is investing heavily on your scouting. With more money put into scouting, you can actually figure out which prospects are actually better. The idea then is to unbalance the second assumption I made earlier about every GM having roughly the same skill/luck when it comes to picking prospects at the draft. The problem is that this plan generally falls on deaf ears: both for the fans, and probably for ownership (who are likely loathe to spend money where it doesn’t have more immediate, definite payback).
There are two “recent” exceptions to my theory, though I think both actually support my theory. Vancouver, after the glory years of the West Coast Express, decided to reload with a brand new GM in Mike Gillis. This guy, I think, really changed the game for the Vancouver Canucks, and the way in which I think about how hockey works. I think he put a long-term plan in place, one that began and ended with two notions: (1) you need to build from the draft; (2) the ownership needs to listen to the GM, and not the fans (which, by the way, is short for fanatic, which is probably someone you don’t want to be making business plans for you). Gillis has generally steadfastly refused to make trades: I think this is because a trade, if you are a “buyer”, generally means that you will lose draft picks. I note that he has often traded prospects that weren’t looking that hot, but rarely given up a draft pick. He really seems to have the ear of ownership, which means that he gets to call the shots, but most importantly, to set the expectations for ownership: he gets to tell them that they will have a middling season, or an outstanding season—basically, that the Canucks needed to do a full upswing, right from the bottom.
That all said, Gillis started with a pretty decent set of players (and put in place a bunch of other programs, but that’s beside the point for now), which helps. It is not like he started with essentially nothing.
In Edmonton, the team has been on a downturn for several years. They are at rock bottom right now, but as with all things, they can’t stay down there forever—particularly with the talent pool that they have in place. I think it is /because/ they have been allowed to be at rock bottom, this has allowed the team to rebuild from the draft, and they have had some outstanding picks. In a few years, they will be stocked with some outstanding talent. It seems likely that some of Gillis’ philosophy got passed to Tambellini.
The problem with middling HMM teams is that they will stay middling unless something comes in to upset the balance altogether. Burke can’t do anything in Toronto because his hands are tied: he has no draft picks, and no real prospects. These are because of some bad decisions in the past (both by him and previous management). This, I suspect, is why he asked for time. You can’t make anything happen without leverage. Lateral trades (what I think we saw yesterday) generally won’t make much of a difference. Right now, he’s just got to wait things out (i.e. until he starts getting draft picks again), and hope for the best (maybe the team just surprises everyone).
I doubt much of this is revelation to most hockey fans—just something I needed to get off my chest. I doubt it is much of my idea, either. I suspect it is some of the wisdom of Mike Gillis that I’m just regurgitating. Right now, I’m totally drinking the cool-aid, and loving it.